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Bettie Üks suht vähetuntud inst researchi maja kirjutas just nii: The market has recently made a fascinating series of Beta Trading System that presage what could turn out to be an historic moment in market annals.
The SPX as well as the other Beta Trading System averages have formed patterns that are poised to precipitate a market correction that could have significant scope lower. This is not to say with certainty that the market falls from here, but rather that the conditions are once again ripe for an inflection point of some importance.
We would posit that the situation is virtually a requirement for a more serious correction: the bulls are fully committed and will have to exit at significant losses should the market reverse and pull back here. Likewise the bears are essentially out of the market now and will need to rapidly move to position themselves for a decline.
Both of these market participants then provide the impetus for a sudden, sharp drop in the market. The bulls have to rally their forces overnight or face the prospects of a rout at a critical time in the nascent new bull market scenario. Larger implications of this potentially important inflection point remain premature.
Should we indeed see a sharp drop on the 1st of the month and the market sustain prices below SPXthe possibilities of a new bear market having begun would increase sharply in our opinion. The stunning consequence of the present inflection point is that if it fulfills to the downside, the odds of the economy rapidly deteriorating into recession would be quite high, despite strong indications of growth from Beta Trading System GDP report.
It is too soon to follow this line of reasoning until resolution is achieved for the heretofore inconsequential price patterns of the market. But the ST patterns call for a sharp rally into SPX resistance and then a rapid reversal lower.